Freakonomics Co-Author Stephen Dubner Comes to Nashville, Predicts a Big Three Bailout

Stephen Dubner, nerd rock star.

Last night, Stephen Dubner, one-half of the pop-psych duo behind the 2005 bestseller Freakonomics, spoke at Vanderbilt's student life center. Dubner, if you recall, is Mr. Hyde, the stenographer slash translator to University of Chicago economist Steven Levitt's mad scientist Dr. Jekyll.

Together, they're the guys who predicted Jackson and Emma would be 2015's most popular baby names and sought to explain reduced crime rates as a result of increased abortions.

Whether they're right or wrong is immaterial. What matters is that they make theories, back them up with data and, as such, provide us lesser minds with countless hours of cocktail-party chatter.

Because Dubner asked that the roughly 800 Vandy students and professors in attendance not spill any details about their follow-up (titled, naturally, Super Freakonomics), we're forced to reduce the contents of last night's speech into a handful of truisms:

- The big "No Vacancy" sign on Wall Street will force would-be egghead bankers to find different jobs, thus having unintended positive consequences in fields like education
- A doctor wearing a tie is the single biggest threat to your health in the hospital
- Econ students, and their professors, are cold-hearted bastards

And...

- Al Gore's method for global climate change is ultimately doomed (shocked face) because it asks for too much behavioral change

Basically, if you've never heard an economist, or a journalist who's co-opted an economist's way of thinking, speak, your take-away is this: People are not necessarily good or bad, they're just lazy, incentive-driven creatures. All of which relates to Dubner's final point, after a student asked him his thoughts on the Big Three Bailout.

Based on conversations with people in the know, Dubner said there was "no way politically" they'd allow GM to sink into bankruptcy. He also offered an explanation for the automakers self-inflicted wounds.

"It's called moral hazard," he said. "If you think someone's going to bail you out, you'll do something wrong. There's no consequences."

Freaky, indeed.

Obama's Assault Weapons Paradox

Technically, this picture is enough to convict the First Lady of a Class C felony.

One thing most people seem to be sure of regarding our new President-elect is that he doesn't like guns. Not only that, he wishes to take them from our warm, live hands. Last week provided anecdotal evidence that these fears helped to spur a local run on peashooters. Now this week there's proof that the trend has gone national.

According to Slate's Jack Shafer, Obama's victory had a measurable impact on gun sales:

To be fair to the press horde, some sort of "Obama effect" does exist. During the week of Nov. 3-9, the FBI received 374,000 background requests, "a nearly 49 percent increase over the same period in 2007," CNN.com reports. Anecdotes collected in some of the news stories indicate that some buyers are keen on buying so-called "assault weapons," which were banned from 1994 until 2004.

It seems the prevailing wisdom here is to get 'em while the gettin's good (and still legal). All of which leads Shafer to an interesting conclusion:

If a genuine run on guns exists, whose fault is it? Blame Obama and his running mate, Joe Biden, a well-known "assault weapon" foe. Paradoxically, if Obama wanted to end the purported run on guns, he could do so by opposing any new regulations.

Not mentioned? Option C: Champion a toothless piece of legislation that satisfies the lazier members of your party while maintaining the status quo, thus ending the gun run.

Problem solved. Right?

Arguing Against Perfection: Why the Titans Win if they Lose

Calm down fellas. We just want them to lose ONE game.

The Titans and New York Giants won again this Sunday, making them 10-0 and 9-1 respectively and making the job of national sportswriters everywhere that much easier. The people who get paid to predict what will happen in the NFL like storylines. They like subplots. And thankfully for them, the two best teams in the league are eager to provide them.

For one, the Titans and the Giants look alike. Punishing offensive lines. Interchangeable, Chinese-fire-drill D-lines that produce in spite of injuries. A multi-headed Hydra of a running game. Largely superstar-free rosters. In short, they both look like good teams because that's what they are: good teams.

Second, the Kerry Collins angle. Collins goes to the Super Bowl with the Giants in 2001. The next year they draft QB-of-the-future Eli Manning, Collins gets pissed about a lowball contract offer and the two sides part ways. It is, oddly enough, a similar scenario to what may take place this offseason. But we digress.

The comparisons work. They make for decent column fodder. And they give us an excuse to say the words COLLISION COURSE (and really, who can resist the urge?).

The Titans are unlike the Giants, however, in one important way: They're still perfect. And that could be a problem...

Peter Schiff: The Most Compelling 10-Minutes Fox News Has Ever Aired

OK, so 10-minutes of Fox News seems like more than any rational being could bear. But trust us when we say: You have to watch this video.

Peter Schiff is one of the only pundits (and almost certainly the only one who garnered a significant airtime) to correctly predict the economic clusterfuck in which we're currently mired. Best of all, he made said predictions at a time when most people (Ben Stein!) still thought the stock market was made up of puppies and rainbows.

So sit back, relax and watch the old clips as Schiff calmly warned us exactly how screwed we'd be, while other analysts laughed at him and "Bueller" practically demanded that you buy stock in Merrill Lynch.

Former University of Tennessee Star Bill Bates Is Not Dead, Despite What Journo School Says

Living, still breathing human being, Bill Bates.

Hopefully, sometime in the past month, one of Bill Bates' five kids did not Google his dad's name alongside the word "died." Because if they had, they would've found this and then this; fake obituaries with a decidedly un-Onion like seriousness.

Bates, a former UT grad, Pro-Bowler with the Dallas Cowboys and all around feel-good story, is actually very much alive. And if you're a worried bride in the Celinas, Texas, area searching last minute for a suitable place to get hitched, he's got you covered.

So why is his alma mater saying he died in a plane crash over Kansas? And then Rome?

Blair Bolick, author of the second obit, explains:

I apologize. This was no prank. I am a student at the University of Tennessee, and for our journalism class, we were set up to do a MOCK story on tnjn.com. My professor tells me that we are the guinea pigs in this experiment. It was never supposed to be released in any way that it could be searched or Googled. I'm fully aware he is alive, but this was strictly a class assignment. I assume it was for Charles as well.

My sincerest apologizes,

Blair

Thanks, Blair. Now, as an added bonus, please enjoy the following video, which helpfully documents the origin of Bates' nickname: That Guy Who Got Run Over By Herschel Walker.

The Statute of Limitations on Kerry Collins Jokes Has Passed, New Material Now Available

10-year-old mugshots = No longer relevant.

The sports blogosphere is like a small child. Occasionally it'll say something profound but mostly it exists to entertain. Stumbling about all wobbly-kneed. Crapping in its pants. Downright adorable is what it is. But under no circumstances should it be taken seriously.

Case in point: The rehashing of Kerry Collins previous missteps.

As quarterback of the only undefeated team in the league, Collins was bound to attract the gaze of the drooling, unblinking toddlers that trundle through the interwebs. Problem is, when it came time to satirize, the collective effort displayed roughly the same creativity as a Montessori-aged child's finger painting.

After the jump, two examples of the gruel that's been offered thus far...

The Tennessee Volunteer Bloggeratti and Mike Leach: A (Doomed) Love Story

The face that sets Knoxville hearts a flutter.

Break ups are hard. But they're made easier when the guy or gal you're dumping snores, disappears when the rent is due and leaves a them-sized imprint in the couch whenever they actually get off of it. Such is the case for Tennessee football fans. Phil Fulmer is gone. Who's next?

For those with a passion for Volunteer football, and html, the answer is clear: Texas Tech coach/mad genius/gentleman pirate Mike Leach.

A cursory look through the Tennessee blogger rolls shows a clear Leach bias, with Rocky Top Talk's argument beating them all in terms of sheer length, thoroughness and authorial denial that there might be anything more important in life.

Unfortunately, a handful of e-missives do not a coaching hire make. UNC's Butch Davis will probably reverse his firm denials in favor of a mountain of cash, Leach will use UT's interest to land himself a sweeter deal in the off-season and all of West Texas will sleep easy knowing they still have their man. Sorry Vols fans, but no amount of blogger love is gonna change that.

The Coming Tennessee College Football Apocalypse is Nearly Upon Us

Dudley Field, 10 or so days from now.

OK, so maybe the Commodores roll into Lexington and take care of business this Saturday. Maybe, after coming off a 42-14 loss that, in all honesty, should've been labeled Florida Starters 42 Vanderbilt Starters 0, the Dores recapture some of that early-season magic--where they never turned the ball over, coffin-cornered every critical punt and managed not to disturb the fairy dust sprinkled on their heads whilst taking off their helmets.

Maybe then, the November 22nd faceoff against Tennessee won't mean as much. But if Rich Brooks & Co. manage to maintain some of the momentum from the near-win against Georgia. If the black-and-gold get rickroll'd by our neighbors to the north. If all that comes to pass, then lock up the hens and break out the rubber bullets, cuz the Tennessee College Football Apocalypse is nigh!

Vandy fighting for bowl-eligibility! Tennessee fighting for...something that is not bowl eligibility! Pride, perhaps.

Honestly, the most interesting angle in this hypothetical is what a loss, or even better, a blowout, might mean for the Vols. Forget the Meineke Car Care Bowl in Vandy's near future. That's boring.

What if it's over by the halftime? What if the Wyoming "worst in a decade" loss was just a precursor for the ultimate humiliation for Big Brother: A de-pantsing in Nashville.

There's an argument in here somewhere in favor of that scenario if you're a Vols fan. Something about not being able to move forward until you've truly reached rock bottom. Or maybe that only applies for drunks. I'm not sure. Either way, let the madness begin.

Kerry Collins is not Trent Dilfer 2.0

So different yet so alike. And both, obviously, milk lovers.

Up until yesterday, it still might have been safe to assume that Kerry Collins was nothing more than Trent Dilfer 2.0. Remember Dilfer?

Back in 2000, while with the Baltimore Ravens, Dilfer, like Collins, was a backup. When the Ravens failed to score an offensive touchdown for four straight games, Dilfer was handed the keys. A veteran without a terribly strong arm, he personified the back-handed compliment given to QBs of his ilk: a game-manager. Despite that, and thanks to one of the best defenses of all time, Dilfer and the Ravens won the Super Bowl, beating Collins and the New York Giants.

Until yesterday's game against the Chicago Bears, Collins looked like Dilfer's spiritual heir: the stopgap made good in spite of his obvious limitations: advanced age and lack of mobility. In eight games, Collins had yet to throw for 200 yards. This was largely by design.

With arguably the league's best offensive line, two solid running backs and a coach who worships the ground game, thus far this year Collins had never been asked to do much more than not turn the ball over. But now this...

Sports Illustrated Gives Tennessee Titans Conveninent Excuse in Case of First Loss

Does the jinx still count if the team isn't mentioned?

The Sports Illustrated cover is the grandfather of all sports jinxes. Sure, Madden and Chunky's soup have claimed their fair share of victims in recent years. But the SI cover has been inducing night terrors for decades. And despite what they might tell you about not believing the hype, any fan worth his or her salt would just prefer their favorite team never grace SI's front pages. Ya know, just in case.

That's where this week's SI comes in. For the first time all season, the Titans are on the cover.

Well, technically, Albert Haynesworth is on the cover. And the article isn't really about the team or their undefeated record; it's about Haynesworth's transformation from face-stomper to potential MVP candidate. But he's wearing a Titans jersey! And, if you buy in to this kind of hokum, that's probably enough reason to believe that not only will the Titans lose to the Bears on Sunday, but Haynesworth will be lost for the season as well.

On account of his spontaneous combustion. Go Titans!

For further reading: Sports Illustrated did their own investigation into the curse back in 2002.

Remembering the John McCain We Would Have Voted For

It sure is. It's just too bad it's not him.

Thank goodness for Tuesday night. No, not just because "that one" won (although that was nice). But because the guy who said the now infamous phrase showed why, at one point, he was the anointed figure. The darling of the press. A man who attracted the best in the business to poke, prod and report back on what they'd found. And all of this happened years ago, before "that one" entered the national consciousness.

First, the bad news: the legacy of John McCain has been tarnished. Permanently. That much should be clear after the Palin-pander nomination (best summed up by Reagan's former chief-of-staff: "Even at McDonald's, you're interviewed three times before you're given a job"), the botched campaign suspension, the "our economy is on solid ground" quote, the daily invoking of the two-headed boogeymen: socialism and domestic terrorists. The list goes on.

Yes, they happened in the heat of a presidential campaign. And yes, the stain that once threatened to permanently tarnish McCain (his involvement with the Keating Five) has largely been reduced to a footnote. But that was 20 years ago. McCain is literally running out of time.

This transformation, from genuine maverick to a man who exhausts even his supporters with the now-empty term is a loss for everyone. Republican, Democrat. It doesn't matter.

It's also a loss for the people who put food on the table by trying to make sense of our public figures. Two of whom--peerless in their fields--were once similarly enchanted by McCain...

Nashville Curiously Silent When it Comes to Spontaneous Political Celebrations

Last night's election of the first African-American man to the presidency was precisely the kind of occasion that demands the spontaneous celebration. OK, so maybe spontaneous is the wrong word; after all, Ohio was called while most of the country was still in prime-time, meaning Obama supporters had at least two hours to plan out exactly in what form or fashion they'd hop around and chant "Yes we can!"

But "spontaneous" celebrations like the one seen above (or the ones seen here, here and here) don't happen often.

So the question is, did any of them happen in Nashville?

Nate Silver and Fivethirtyeight.com: The Obama Supporters Blankie

Worry not, fans of Obama. This man says izallgood.

By now, you've surely read an article about Obama supporters worried that just saying the words "it's in the bag" will jinx their candidate. Or, if you haven't, read this and you'll get the gist.

I am one such person. Although in every other facet of life I try to hew toward the reasonable (a subscription to Skeptic Magazine has been collecting dust on my Amazon wish list for months), I can still fall prey to the guttural chants and ritual animal sacrifice favored by the mystic set. Especially when it comes to two things: politics and baseball.

During the 2002 World Series, I risked the threat of blood loss and amputation by refusing to move a muscle while the San Francisco Giants were at-bat. It didn't work.

Now the same phenomena is happening, only this time it's with the election. This morning, I made a concerted effort not to wear anything too fancy (a relative term that, in this office, means not tucking in your shirt) for fear that it'd somehow be construed by the Political Gods as a celebratory gesture. The only thing that's kept my animal instincts in check are regular visits to Fivethirtyeight.com, the Obama supporters blankie...

The Real Reason to Vote: Freebies

Democracy never tasted so sweet.

It's official: Every American with a broadband connection has received this video. Why? Because the smug self-satisfaction that comes with casting a ballot is best shared with friends. Also, guilt trips work.

But shaming is far from the most effective form of coercion. Witness the free giveaway.

With only a simple sticker as proof, you, the Nashville voter who cares enough to wait in line for an hour, can now get free stuff.

Here's the list so far:

Ben & Jerry's: Free scoop from 5-8 PM
Krispy Kreme: Free "Patriotic" donut
Starbucks: Free small coffee
Chic-fil-A: Free...something. Each store is individually owned and operated, so while some may give you a small Coke, others might offer a whole sandwich. Either way, Chic-fil-a does seem to think their freebies are the only ones you should get today; they make you hand in your "I Voted" sticker.

If you know of any other giveaways or have had problems with the ones above, leave 'em in the comments below.

Beware the Coming Holiday Tales of Economic Woe

Quick, someone get this man a reporter!

With Halloween already passed and Thanksgiving just around the corner, America is settling in nicely for what looks to be a lean holiday season. Not literally, of course. The double-dose of gluttonous family gatherings and shorter, colder days guarantees we'll all become slightly more depressed, slightly heavier versions of our normal selves come calendar-flippin' time.

No, lean refers to money. As in, thanks to this economy we'll probably have a harder time finding enough to pay off the credit card debt we're bound to run up in the months before Christmas. And inevitably, some (or thousands) of newspaper reporters are going to run an article featuring a sad sack family's tale of woe and attempt to convince you this is anything new.

Fortunately, there's people out there willing to call B.S. on that theory...

"Inside the Sad, Sadistic Life of a Campaign Reporter"

Those poor, miserable little people.

Articles about the people who write articles for a living are rarely more than self-indulgent drivel. The fourth wall is there for a reason: The people behind it usually aren't that interesting.

So it's with some pleasure that we pass along this fascinating (and brief) account from The New Republic of how the interminable election season is affecting the reporters covering it. Sleepless nights. Broken homes. A Lord of the Flies-type atmosphere on campaign flights. And everybody's favorite: the identity crisis!

"It's kind of like, this is who I am now, so the idea of the campaign being over and not doing a politics blog is a little bit like, who am I after this election?"

Listening to the same speech every day for 18 months is boring? Who knew?

For more bitching, click here.

Sounds Sold; New Owners Try to Convince Nashville They're Not Carpetbaggers

Welcome (one of) your new Nashville Sounds overlord(s).

When you went off to college, you might have remembered the fellow coed whose parents bought them an off-campus house or apartment. These people obviously had a lot of money. They also had a pretty rock-solid rationale: Our son or daughter loves the town, real estate is (was?) a great investment, and we'd rather their rent line our pockets than some strangers.

Frank Ward, the man pictured above, is one of those people. Only instead of a house, Ward, along with two of his fellow New York real estate investors, decided to buy a baseball team.

Ward is one-third of MFP Real Estate, the new owners of the Nashville Sounds. According to press releases sent out by their PR group, the Sounds first came on to MFP's radar after Ward's daughter, now a junior, enrolled at Vanderbilt. Also, one of the other guys once sold hot dogs at Shea Stadium. So yeah, why not buy a baseball team?

Anyway, the Vandy connection is noteworthy because it's the kind of thing you'd want to harp on if you were a bunch of out-of-town investors who just bought the Sounds. When the relationship between Al Gordon and Metro Nashville soured, many fans used it as an opportunity to play up his carpetbagger status (Gordon's Amerisports is based in Chicago). The first order of business with any disgruntled fan base is to always reinforce that you're not like the other guy.

In that respect, MFP is off to a good start.

PETA and Harpeth High Science Teacher Argue Merits of Donkey Basketball, Miss Point Entirely

Look how much fun they're BOTH having!

So here's the situation: Harpeth High in Kingston Springs is holding a game of donkey basketball on November 17th. For those unawares, donkey basketball is exactly what it sounds like: basketball with the added "thrill" of riding on a burro.

Upon hearing of Harpeth's plans, PETA, the long-tendriled protector of animals worldwide, decided to intervene (here's where you look shocked), urging their many contributors to send the school's principal a sternly worded e-mail that they, helpfully, had already written. The campaign was a success in that it clogged the principal's inbox with nearly 700 e-mails. It wasn't a success, however, if you consider that Harpeth is still planning to raise money for its wrestling team by having students ride around on pissed off farmhands.

OK, so we'll acknowledge that PETA picks fights like this every day. And we'll acknowledge that the group is perceived, in some circles, as extremist nutbags. We'll further acknowledge that this is precisely the kind of intractable debate that will NEVER BE SETTLED. So let's look at this issue from a different angle, shall we?

Chris Simms: Computer-Illiterate Heterosexual

Like your grandma, Simms also refers to it as "the internets."

For the average football fan, there are two known facts about Titans' third-string QB Chris Simms.

1) He's the son of former New York Giants quarterback and current CBS analyst Phil Simms

and

2) He once played with a ruptured spleen

For the average football fan who also reads sports blogs, however, there's one lesser known fact about Simms: He has another man's initials tattooed on his leg. Simms got the tat while playing at the University of Texas. His best friend and fellow teammate returned the favor, getting "CS" inked on his ankle. Then, naturally, they were both accused of being gay. Fortunately, thanks to Titans kicker Rob Bironas, we now have an official rebuttal from Simms and an extra bit of knowledge about our favorite clipboard-holder.

While reporting last week's cover story, Bironas interrupted our conversation to offer this gem:

Bironas: Despite what the media is saying, Chris Simms is not gay.

Simms laughed off the joke -- because that's what you do when the team's lowliest member rips on you -- and said that he ignores such speculation by avoiding sports media in general, a task made easier because he doesn't own a computer. That's right, he's a 28-year-old American male who's never used e-mail and doesn't live in a Montana compound. This team just keeps on giving.

Jon "Trailer Park" Jackson's Leaves his Double-Wide

Campaign Speech

In the final days of a losing campaign, political candidates often resort to desperate measures. Witness Jon "Trailer Park" Jackson's latest campaign video, where he's actually seen outside the trailer where he lives...fully clothed.

Yes, Trailer Park has all the trappings of a real candidate now: A stump speech, American flags waving in the background...suspenders. All because he wants to win. Ugh. Give us the old Trailer Park any day. He may not have bothered to put on a shirt, but at least he kept it real.