Democrat Disaster: Pat Marsh Beats Ty Cobb in House District 62
Republicans seized another Democratic seat in the state House tonight in the special election to succeed Rep. Curt Cobb. Trucking company owner Pat Marsh beat Cobb's brother, Ty, handily by a vote of 4,931 to 3,663. That gives Republicans a 51-48 advantage in the House and makes it that much harder for Tennessee's beleaguered Democrats to return to power in the high-stakes 2010 elections.
Pat Marsh
Democrats poured everything they had into this race to hold this seat. Many observers described the election as a bellwether for 2010, a strong indication of just how much Barack Obama's unpopularity here might hurt Democrats in state races.
Watch for a circular firing squad with Democrats blaming each other for the debacle. A few targets:
(1) It's truly an embarrassment for new state party chair Chip Forrester, who won his job by boasting of his skills as a grassroots organizer. This low-turnout election was all about identifying your voters and getting them to the polls, and Forrester obviously failed.
(2) Cobb basically ran as a Republican, even winning the Right to Life endorsement. So progressives will claim Democrats screwed up by running to the right, although the district's clearly conservative and it's hard to imagine how a liberal could have done better than Cobb.
(3) The House Democratic Caucus led by Rep. Mike Turner sent a controversial mailer claiming Marsh favored cloning humans. It was an absurd accusation on its face, and it might have backfired.
(4) Curt Cobb, the incumbent, will take heat as well for putting the seat in jeopardy in the first place by resigning to take a higher paying county job. It's like the resignation of Democrat Rep. Randy Rinks, whose West Tennessee seat also was lost to Republicans in '08.
For Republicans, the victory boosts fund-raising, helps candidate recruitment and builds momentum for 2010, when legislative elections will determine which party wins the right to try to gerrymander its enemies into oblivion for the next decade.
Update: Kleinheider weighs in. Even a great name, a pro-life endorsement and a yellow dog district isn't enough to put Ty Cobb over the top.
Update II: GOP chair Chris Devaney's statement.
Update III: Sean Braisted wonders if it's "kinda disingenuous to run to the right of Genghis Khan and claim the opponent has a super-duper secret plan to clone people."
Update IV: Forrester keeps a stiff upper lip. "And with good candidates, being down two is not a mountain by any means, but a hill."
Also see Tiny Cat Pants ... Left Wing Cracker ... Southern Beale ... Stacey Campfield.
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