That Time of the Month
Yes, once again the fate of the free world comes down to primary elections in medium-sized states. So how will it go down tonight in North Carolina and Indiana? Let's have those prognostications. Closest aggregate call (net combination of the margins) in the two races wins a one-year membership in the Court of Elite Opinion.
I’m going with Clinton 54.2-45.8 in IN and Obama 52.7-47.3 in NC.
In IN, the polls have sent a few mixed signals, but on closer inspection you have to believe that Zogby has it right and everyone else has it wrong to think Obama has much of a chance. Add in the likelihood given IN’s demographics that late deciders will tilt heavily toward Clinton, and it’s hard to see how Obama comes closer than seven or eight.
In NC, Clinton has unquestionably been closing the gap, but I look for Obama to push the steady 50 number he’s been polling up a few points to make it about a five-point win.
End of the night headline: Both claim victory, status quo ante, on to WV. What say you?
Comments
If Obama wins handily in NC, I fail to see where a squeaker Clinton win in Indiana would matter much. I imagine the IN delegates would be pretty much split and therefore Clinton ends the day with a net loss of delegates. Only allows her to claim she didn't get blown out of the water, which is probably good enough for her. But if she should happen to lose both states - by any margins - she should get out (and the DNC leadership should go full-bore on her to do so). But she won't.
As for predictions, I'm waiting for Tom and going with whatever he says. I believe his track record is good on these.
Posted 05/06/2008 at 10:17:44 AMNotwithstanding recent momentum, how uphill is Clinton's path? Let's go to the trusty CNN delegate counter and plug in some numbers:
-HC wins IN 54-46
-BO wins NC 52-48
-HC wins WV 65-35
-HC wins KY 65-35
-HC wins PR 65-35
-50-50 tie in OR, MT and SD
Result: Obama still holds a 100 delegate lead.
Posted 05/06/2008 at 11:05:41 AMHow is the nation's 10th largest state 'medium sized'?
Posted 05/06/2008 at 11:50:11 AMIndiana:
Best Case - O 51 C 49
What I think - C 53 O 47
Worst Case - C 55 O 45
North Carolina:
Best Case - O 57 C 42
Posted 05/06/2008 at 11:56:46 AMWhat I think - O 54 C 46
Worst Case - O 51 C 48
DOH!
Posted 05/06/2008 at 10:28:41 PMThe happy news for BO was unhappy news for BB's prognostication record. Three observations: (1) The voters of NC did for Obama what the voters of PA did for Clinton: say to the other side and to the party "not so fast; we'll call the shots here." (2) Zogby had a better sampling model than the others in Indiana. (3) When the history of the 2008 primary campaign is written, Clinton's gas tax pander will go down as one big time strategic blunder.
Posted 05/07/2008 at 11:06:27 AM